National Bureau Of Economic Research Papers

NBER Papers on NBER Papers in the Economics of Education

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w24332 Michael Geruso
Heather Royer
The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK
w24341 Ofer Malamud
Andreea Mitrut
Cristian Pop-Eleches
The Effect of Education on Mortality and Health: Evidence from a Schooling Expansion in Romania
w24315 Elira Kuka
Na'ama Shenhav
Kevin Shih
Do Human Capital Decisions Respond to the Returns to Education? Evidence from DACA
w24300 Susan Payne Carter
Abigail Wozniak
Making Big Changes: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel
w24303 Susan W. Parker
Tom Vogl
Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico
w24276 Robert W. Fairlie
Peter Riley Bahr
The Effects of Computers and Acquired Skills on Earnings, Employment and College Enrollment: Evidence from a Field Experiment and California UI Earnings Records
w24255 Barbara Biasi
Petra Moser
Effects of Copyrights on Science - Evidence from the US Book Republication Program
w24203 C. Kirabo Jackson
Cora Wigger
Heyu Xiong
Do School Spending Cuts Matter? Evidence from the Great Recession
w24189 Tatyana Avilova
Claudia Goldin
What Can UWE Do for Economics?
w24191 Michael Gilraine
Hugh Macartney
Robert McMillan
Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Evidence from California's Class Size Reduction
w24160 Jared Ashworth
V. Joseph Hotz
Arnaud Maurel
Tyler Ransom
Changes across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences
w24172 Atila Abdulkadiroglu
Joshua D. Angrist
Yusuke Narita
Parag A. Pathak
Impact Evaluation in Matching Markets with General Tie-Breaking
w24140 Matthew Davis
Fernando V. Ferreira
Housing Disease and Public School Finances
w24141 Charles R. Hulten
The Importance of Education and Skill Development for Economic Growth in the Information Era
w24150 William N. Evans
Melissa S. Kearney
Brendan C. Perry
James X. Sullivan
Increasing Community College Completion Rates among Low-Income Students: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluation of a Case Management Intervention
w24113 Ramina Sotoudeh
Dalton Conley
Kathleen Mullan Harris
The Influence of Peer Genotypes and Behavior on Smoking Outcomes: Evidence from Add Health
w24128 Jaegeum Lim
Jonathan Meer
Persistent Effects of Teacher-Student Gender Matches
w24111 Cynthia (CC) DuBois
Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
The Effect of Court-Ordered Hiring Guidelines on Teacher Composition and Student Achievement
w24061 Javier Cano-Urbina
Lance Lochner
The Effect of Education and School Quality on Female Crime
w24060 Benjamin M. Marx
Lesley J. Turner
Student Loan Nudges: Experimental Evidence on Borrowing and Educational Attainment
w24041 Andrew D. Foster
Esther Gehrke
Consumption Risk and Human Capital Accumulation in India
w24028 Victor Lavy
Adi Boiko
Management Quality in Public Education: Superintendent Value-Added, Student Outcomes and Mechanisms
w24003 Alberto Abadie
Susan Athey
Guido W. Imbens
Jeffrey Wooldridge
When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?
w24004 Uri Gneezy
John A. List
Jeffrey A. Livingston
Sally Sadoff
Xiangdong Qin
Yang Xu
Measuring Success in Education: The Role of Effort on the Test Itself
w24012 Juan Saavedra
Dario Maldonado
Lucrecia Santibanez
Luis Omar Herrera Prada
Premium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers
w24017 Parag A. Pathak
Peng Shi
How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice
w24000 Robert A. Pollak
How Bargaining in Marriage drives Marriage Market Equilibrium
w23982 Francisco Gallego
Ofer Malamud
Cristian Pop-Eleches
Parental Monitoring and Children's Internet Use: The Role of Information, Control, and Cues
w23957 Karthik Muralidharan
Paul Niehaus
Experimentation at Scale
w23922 Mark J. Chin
Thomas J. Kane
Whitney Kozakowski
Beth E. Schueler
Douglas O. Staiger
School District Reform in Newark: Within- and Between-School Changes in Achievement Growth
w23925 Jonathan M.V. Davis
Jonathan Guryan
Kelly Hallberg
Jens Ludwig
The Economics of Scale-Up
w23934 Davide Cantoni
Jeremiah Dittmar
Noam Yuchtman
Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation
w23896 James J. Heckman
John Eric Humphries
Gregory Veramendi
The Non-Market Benefits of Education and Ability
w23905 Nathaniel Hilger
All Together Now: Leveraging Firms to Increase Worker Productivity Growth
w23912 Atila Abdulkadiroglu
Parag A. Pathak
Jonathan Schellenberg
Christopher R. Walters
Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?
w23867 Abhijit Banerjee
Sylvain Chassang
Sergio Montero
Erik Snowberg
A Theory of Experimenters
w23870 Felipe Barrera-Osorio
David S. Blakeslee
Matthew Hoover
Leigh Linden
Dhushyanth Raju
Stephen P. Ryan
Delivering Education to the Underserved Through a Public-Private Partnership Program in Pakistan
w23888 Richard Murphy
Judith Scott-Clayton
Gillian Wyness
The End of Free College in England: Implications for Quality, Enrolments, and Equity
w23890 Keith Meyers
Melissa A. Thomasson
Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment
w23851 Daniel Kreisman
Kevin Stange
Vocational and Career Tech Education in American High Schools: The Value of Depth Over Breadth
w23859 Daphna Bassok
Thomas Dee
Scott Latham
The Effects of Accountability Incentives in Early Childhood Education
w23860 Jeffrey T. Denning
Benjamin M. Marx
Lesley J. Turner
ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduation, Earnings, and Welfare
w23821 Dustin R. White
Benjamin W. Cowan
Jadrian Wooten
March Madness: NCAA Tournament Participation and College Alcohol Use
w23769 David Card
A. Abigail Payne
High School Choices and the Gender Gap in STEM
w23792 Roland G. Fryer
Meghan Howard Noveck
High-Dosage Tutoring and Reading Achievement: Evidence from New York City
w23803 Zhuang Hao
Benjamin W. Cowan
The Effects of Graduation Requirements on Risky Health Behaviors of High School Students
w23744 Maya Escueta
Vincent Quan
Andre Joshua Nickow
Philip Oreopoulos
Education Technology: An Evidence-Based Review
w23735 Adriana D. Kugler
Catherine H. Tinsley
Olga Ukhaneva
Choice of Majors: Are Women Really Different from Men?
w23736 David J. Deming
Christopher R. Walters
The Impact of Price Caps and Spending Cuts on U.S. Postsecondary Attainment
w23738 Christopher R. Dobronyi
Philip Oreopoulos
Uros Petronijevic
Goal Setting, Academic Reminders, and College Success: A Large-Scale Field Experiment
w23709 Naci H. Mocan
Han Yu
Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China
w23641 Christian Belzil
Arnaud Maurel
Modibo Sidibé
Estimating the Value of Higher Education Financial Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment
w23660 Elizabeth Dhuey
David Figlio
Krzysztof Karbownik
Jeffrey Roth
School Starting Age and Cognitive Development
w23661 David N. Figlio
Umut Özek
Unwelcome Guests? The Effects of Refugees on the Educational Outcomes of Incumbent Students
w23638 Damon Clark
David Gill
Victoria Prowse
Mark Rush
Using Goals to Motivate College Students: Theory and Evidence from Field Experiments
w23618 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Emmanuel Saez
Nicholas Turner
Danny Yagan
Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility
w23619 Hugh Macartney
John D. Singleton
School Boards and Student Segregation
w23571 Richard J. Murnane
Sean F. Reardon
Long-Term Trends in Private School Enrollments by Family Income
w23573 Ozkan Eren
Naci Mocan
Juvenile Punishment, High School Graduation and Adult Crime: Evidence from Idiosyncratic Judge Harshness
w23575 Rodney J. Andrews
Scott A. Imberman
Michael F. Lovenheim
Risky Business? The Effect of Majoring in Business on Earnings and Educational Attainment
w23588 Graham Beattie
Jean-William P. Laliberté
Catherine Michaud-Leclerc
Philip Oreopoulos
What Sets College Thrivers and Divers Apart? A Contrast in Study Habits, Attitudes, and Mental Health
w23594 Sandra García
Juan Saavedra
Educational Impacts and Cost-Effectiveness of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Developing Countries: A Meta-Analysis
w23550 Richard J. Murnane
Marcus R. Waldman
John B. Willett
Maria Soledad Bos
Emiliana Vegas
The Consequences of Educational Voucher Reform in Chile
w23531 Aaron Chatterji
Innovation and American K-12 Education
w23486 Joshua D. Angrist
Victor Lavy
Jetson Leder-Luis
Adi Shany
Maimonides Rule Redux
w23489 Rucker C. Johnson
C. Kirabo Jackson
Reducing Inequality Through Dynamic Complementarity: Evidence from Head Start and Public School Spending
w23492 Bahadir Dursun
Resul Cesur
Inas Rashad Kelly
The Value of Mandating Maternal Education in a Developing Country
w23497 James J. Heckman
Rodrigo Pinto
Unordered Monotonicity
w23498 William N. Evans
Daniel Fitzgerald
The Economic and Social Outcomes of Refugees in the United States: Evidence from the ACS
w23461 Steven W. Hemelt
Brian Jacob
Differentiated Accountability and Education Production: Evidence from NCLB Waivers
w23462 Sade Bonilla
Thomas Dee
The Effects of School Reform Under NCLB Waivers: Evidence from Focus Schools in Kentucky
w23463 Thomas Dee
Elise Dizon-Ross
School Performance, Accountability and Waiver Reforms: Evidence from Louisiana
w23478 Andrew Bacher-Hicks
Mark J. Chin
Thomas J. Kane
Douglas O. Staiger
An Evaluation of Bias in Three Measures of Teacher Quality: Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys
w23479 Jorge Luis García
James J. Heckman
Duncan Ermini Leaf
María José Prados
Quantifying the Life-cycle Benefits of a Prototypical Early Childhood Program
w23445 Michael F. Lovenheim
Patrick Walsh
Does Choice Increase Information? Evidence from Online School Search Behavior
w23442 Rodney J. Andrews
John Thompson
Earning your CAP: A Comprehensive Analysis of The University of Texas System's Coordinated Admissions Program
w23453 Holger Sieg
Yu Wang
The Impact of Student Debt on Education, Career, and Marriage Choices of Female Lawyers
w23412 Jorge Luis García
James J. Heckman
Anna L. Ziff
Gender Differences in the Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program
w23437 Roland G. Fryer
Management and Student Achievement: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
w23390 Pietro Biroli
Daniela Del Boca
James J. Heckman
Lynne Pettler Heckman
Yu Kyung. Koh
Sylvi Kuperman
Sidharth Moktan
Chiara D. Pronzato
Anna Ziff
Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education
w23392 Anna Aizer
Janet Currie
Lead and Juvenile Delinquency: New Evidence from Linked Birth, School and Juvenile Detention Records
w23360 Dennis Epple
Richard Romano
Sinan Sarpça
Holger Sieg
Melanie Zaber
Market Power and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Market for Higher Education
w23371 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song
Justin Weidner
Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
w23374 Andrew Barr
Sarah Turner
A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Post-Secondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?
w23333 Rachel Baker
Eric Bettinger
Brian Jacob
Ioana Marinescu
The Effect of Labor Market Information on Community College Students' Major Choice
w23297 Kai Hong
Kacie Dragan
Sherry Glied
Seeing and Hearing: The Impacts of New York City's Universal Prekindergarten Program on the Health of Low-Income Children
w23265 Atila Abdulkadiroglu
Yeon-Koo Che
Parag A. Pathak
Alvin E. Roth
Olivier Tercieux
Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp
w23275 Felipe Barrera-Osorio
Leigh L. Linden
Juan Saavedra
Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia
w23284 Holger M. Mueller
Constantine Yannelis
Students in Distress: Labor Market Shocks, Student Loan Default, and Federal Insurance Programs
w23259 Michael J. Kottelenberg
Steven F. Lehrer
Does Quebec's Subsidized Child Care Policy Give Boys and Girls an Equal Start?
w23232 Zhuan Pei
Jörn-Steffen Pischke
Hannes Schwandt
Poorly Measured Confounders are More Useful on the Left Than on the Right
w23215 Elizabeth U. Cascio
Does Universal Preschool Hit the Target? Program Access and Preschool Impacts
w23218 Michael L. Anderson
Justin Gallagher
Elizabeth Ramirez Ritchie
School Lunch Quality and Academic Performance
w23193 Caroline M. Hoxby
The Returns to Online Postsecondary Education
w23195 Marcel Fafchamps
Di Mo
Peer Effects in Computer Assisted Learning: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
w23178 Benjamin Feigenberg
Steven Rivkin
Rui Yan
Illusory Gains from Chile's Targeted School Voucher Experiment
w23144 Joshua D. Angrist
Jörn-Steffen Pischke
Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly
w23159 Daniel M. Hungerman
Kevin J. Rinz
Jay Frymark
Beyond the Classroom: The Implications of School Vouchers for Church Finances
w23118 Tiffany Chou
Adam Looney
Tara Watson
Measuring Loan Outcomes at Postsecondary Institutions: Cohort Repayment Rates as an Indicator of Student Success and Institutional Accountability
w23122 Robert Jensen
Nolan H. Miller
Keepin' 'em Down on the Farm: Migration and Strategic Investment in Children's Schooling
w23062 Sandra E. Black
Sanni Breining
David N. Figlio
Jonathan Guryan
Krzysztof Karbownik
Helena Skyt Nielsen
Jeffrey Roth
Marianne Simonsen
Sibling Spillovers
w23063 Joshua Goodman
The Labor of Division: Returns to Compulsory High School Math Coursework
w23087 Sebastian Galiani
Matthew Staiger
Gustavo Torrens
When Children Rule: Parenting in Modern Families
w23038 Sanni N. Breining
Joseph J. Doyle
David N. Figlio
Krzysztof Karbownik
Jeffrey Roth
Birth Order and Delinquency: Evidence from Denmark and Florida
w23043 Leonardo Bursztyn
Thomas Fujiwara
Amanda Pallais
'Acting Wife': Marriage Market Incentives and Labor Market Investments
w23050 Juan Saavedra
Emma Näslund-Hadley
Mariana Alfonso
Targeted Remedial Education: Experimental Evidence from Peru
w23025 Paul N. Courant
Sarah Turner
Faculty Deployment in Research Universities
w23029 Joseph G. Altonji
Seth D. Zimmerman
The Costs of and Net Returns to College Major
w23017 Douglas Almond
Janet Currie
Valentina Duque
Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II
w23019 Wan-Ying Chang
Wei Cheng
Julia Lane
Bruce Weinberg
Federal Funding of Doctoral Recipients: Results from new Linked Survey and Transaction Data
w23020 Leonardo Bursztyn
Georgy Egorov
Robert Jensen
Cool to be Smart or Smart to be Cool? Understanding Peer Pressure in Education

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Generated on Tue Mar 13 00:00:03 2018

This article is about the research organization. For the railroad, see Nittany and Bald Eagle Railroad.

LeaderJames M. Poterba

Revenue (2014)

Expenses (2014)$32,979,628[1]

Coordinates: 42°22′11″N71°06′46″W / 42.3697°N 71.1127°W / 42.3697; -71.1127

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community."[2] The NBER is well known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

The NBER is the largest economics research organization in the United States.[citation needed] Many of the American winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences were NBER Research Associates.[citation needed] Many of the Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers have also been NBER Research Associates, including the former NBER President and Harvard Professor, Martin Feldstein.

The NBER's current President and CEO is Professor James M. Poterba of MIT.


The NBER was founded in 1920. Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C. Rorty in 1922.

The Russian American economist Simon Kuznets, and student of Mitchell, was working at the NBER when the U.S. government recruited him to oversee the production of the first official estimates of national income, published in 1934.

In the early 1940s, Kuznets' work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity.[3] The NBER is currently located in Cambridge, Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City.


The NBER's research activities are mostly identified by 20 research programs on different subjects and 14 working groups. The research programs are: Aging, Asset Pricing, Behavioral/Macro, Capital Markets and the Economy, Children, Corporate Finance, Development of the American Economy, Economics of Education, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Energy and the Environment, Health Care, Health Economics, Industrial Organization, International Finance and Macroeconomics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Law and Economics, Monetary Economics, Political Economy, Productivity, and Public Economics.[4] From this research come the NBER's Working Papers.

Sources of Inequality Research[edit]

Can Universal Screening Increase The Representation Of Low Income and Minority Students In Gifted Education[edit]

[5] The NBER or the National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization, that focuses on examining in great detail economic growth of occurring problems in the U.S. In the article “Can Universal Screening Increase the Representation of Low Income and Minority Students in Gifted Education” by the National Bureau of Economic research, authors David Card and Laura Giuliano believe that low income and minority families are under represented in schools' gifted education courses. The authors address one occurring problem with theses tests: whether or not these minority students are overlooked by the system. Teacher and parent referrals would be acknowledged by comprehensive screening programs being introduced into school districts today. The screening tests that school districts are beginning to implement test students on a variety of characteristics to see whether or not they would qualify and succeed in gifted education programs. One issue that the new screening tests would fix compared to the older referrals is that non-English speaking students are overlooked because of a lack of parental referrals due to language barriers. When these tests were implemented on a small scale the statistics showed an increase in Hispanic students by 130 percent, and the number of black students increased by 80 percent. These statistics indicate that there are little to no consequences for minorities when these tests that are being implemented. In conclusion the authors suggest that the issues found in gifted educational programs can be fixed by comprehensive screenings.

Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in The United States[edit]

[6] One of the major research themes in the National Bureau of Economic research is sources of inequality. Kenneth Y. Chay, Jonathan Guryan, and Bhashkar Mazumder conducted a study in which they analyzed the substantial gaps in test scores on the AFQT and NAEP tests among black-white cohorts. The National Bureau of Economic Research published an article titled “Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in The United States” to eliminate any possible biases in Chay, Guryan and Mazumders’ previous analysis and address the primary caveats.

The National Bureau of Economic Research uses the term "gains" to reflect improvement in racial convergence. Prior studies have concluded black gains in AFQT and NAEP scores in the early 1980s, black gains in college enrollment in the mid-1980s, and black gains in earnings throughout the 1990s. It is concluded that black gains were centered among cohorts of blacks born in the South during the 1960s and 70s; therefore, not only is the study geographically exclusive, but data is also inconsistent with the contemporary causes in the 1980s and 1990s. These results would rather be indicating that black gains in the 1990s were influenced by the Civil Rights and War on Poverty periods (25–30 years before the 1990s).

With response to the education gap, new findings show that the cross-cohort gains in college enrollment only pertained to blacks born in the South (there were no relative gains for black in the North). New findings also show that gains in relative earnings are limited to blacks born in the 1965 to 1972 cohorts (ages 28–35 in 2002) and show no gains for other age groups. To conclude, the findings of this updated study indicate that racial gains are due primarily in part to birth date and birthplace.

Racial Inequality in the 21st Century: The Declining Significance of Discrimination[edit]

[7] The National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed the hindrances in quality of education of black and Hispanic students compared to the education of white students, the causes for black students to fall behind in the classroom faster that white students, as well as the attempts to fix these gaps in education between races. The most common factors contributing to racial gaps are thought to be “discrimination, culture, and genetics,” among others. The first study in the article concluded that the best way to eliminate racial inequality in the future, specifically with income inequality, would be to provide black and white students with the same skills. The next study indicates that white children show a higher level of education than black students as young as two years old. Possible explanations for this are that the older children are tested differently than younger children, which could have more to do with what the child has observed throughout the years than what they are innately capable of, that there are racial differences in the rates in which children develop, and that genes and environmental influences also come into play. The third study demonstrates that the inherent deviation in education in children before they enter school depends on their parental environment. Similarly, the fourth study concludes that intervention programs before children enter schools still need a lot of work and are beneficial in some ways, but ultimately do not close the gap in education between black and white students. The fifth study looks at children from kindergarten to 12th grade, finding that there is an education gap present, but it isn’t clear where it is most present. However, the next study about exclusively high school students shows that eighth grade test scores specifically play a key role in the growing gap between high school students and their graduation rates. The seventh study analyzes the effect of intervention programs on students once they have entered school, and indicates that improvement within schools and teaching alone can positively affect the achievement of black students and make them more comparable to that of white students. The entire NBER article ultimately concludes that we still do not know how to close the achievement gap because of the present color line, but there are certainly ways to increase individual student achievement that may eventually make schools more productive overall.

Public Universities, Equal Opportunity, and the Legacy of Jim Crow: Evidence from North Carolina[edit]

[8] This study is a part of the NBER Working Paper Series, meaning it does not undergo the same peer and NBER board review as their regular research. Using data from the University of North Carolina system, which encompasses all public colleges in the state, the study looks at racial inequality at the collegiate level in regards to enrollment, completion, and various achievements, and the causation of such inequity. The study also mentions historically black colleges in North Carolina, and briefly questions whether they remain a positive contribution in contemporary America, arguing that they were a reaction to Jim Crow laws and tend to isolate African-American students from other racial groups.

Controlling for test scores, majors, and other scholastic factors, the study looks at administrative data from North Carolina K-12 public schools of eighth graders both in 1999 and 2004, categorized both by race and socioeconomic standing. It then tracks these students through their expected graduation dates of both high school and college, given they continued to a North Carolina university, and they examined whatever racial stratification occurred within those time periods based on enrollment and graduation rates at each university.

The study found that African-Americans in the North Carolina public school system are greatly disadvantaged. In one group, controlling for gender, the study found that, of the 2004 eighth graders, African-American students were 4.6% less likely to attend a North Carolina university than their white peers, and “5.5 percentage points less likely to enroll and graduate within four years.” However, when controlling for parental higher education and eighth grade tests scores, the study found that African-American students of the aforementioned grouping are more likely to attend and graduate within four years from a North Carolina university, which the study attributes to the abundance of historically black colleges in the state.

Notable members[edit]

Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairmen[edit]

In chronological order

Other notable members[edit]

Policy impact[edit]

In one study, the NBER was ranked as the second most influential domestic economic policy think tank (the first was the Brookings Institution).[9]

Recession markers[edit]

The NBER is well known for its start and end dates of US recessions. The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than commonly appears in the media. A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[10] Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee under contract with the Department of Commerce. Typically, these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP, although not always so.[11]

The NBER prefers this method for a variety of reasons. First, they feel by measuring a wide range of economic factors, rather than just GDP, a more accurate assessment of the health of an economy can be gained. For instance, the NBER considers not only the product-side estimates like GDP, but also income-side estimates such as the gross domestic income (GDI). Second, since the NBER wishes to measure the duration of economic expansion and recession at a fine grain, they place emphasis on monthly—rather than quarterly—economic indicators. Finally, by using a looser definition, they can take into account the depth of decline in economic activity. For example, the NBER may declare not a recession simply because of two quarters of very slight negative growth, but rather an economic stagnation.[12] However, they do not precisely define what is meant by "a significant decline," but rather determine if one has existed on a case by case basis after examining their catalogued factors which have no defined grade scale or weighting factors. The subjectivity of the determination has led to criticism and accusations committee members can "play politics" in their determinations.[13]

Though not listed by the NBER, another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long term economic contraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as was the case in the recession following the bursting of the dot-com bubble.[12] For example, a repeated sequence of quarters with significant negative growth followed by a quarter of no or slight positive growth would not meet the traditional definition of a recession, even though the nation would be undergoing continuous economic decline.

Announcement of end of 2007–2009 recession[edit]

In September 2010, after a conference call with its Business Cycle Dating Committee, the NBER declared that the Great Recession in the United States had officially ended in 2009 and lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.[14][15] In response, a number of newspapers wrote that the majority of Americans did not believe the recession was over, mainly because they were still struggling and because the country still faced high unemployment.[16][17][18] However, the NBER release had noted that "In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle."[19]


External links[edit]

  1. ^ ab"National Bureau of Economic Research Inc"(PDF). Foundation Center. Retrieved 24 March 2017. 
  2. ^"History of the NBER". The National Bureau of Economic Research. 
  3. ^Carson, Carol (1975). "The History of the United States National Income and Product Accounts: The Development of an Analytical Tool". Review of Income & Wealth. 21 (2): 153–181. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1975.tb00687.x. 
  4. ^"Major NBER Programs". The National Bureau of Economic Research. 
  5. ^Card, David, Giuliano, Laura (September 2015). "Can Universal Screening Increase the representation of Low Income and Minority Students in Gifted Education?". NBER Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w21519. 
  6. ^Chay, Kenneth, Guryan, Johnathan (October 2014). "Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in the United States". NBER Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w20539. 
  7. ^Fryer, Jr, Roland G (August 2010). "Racial Inequality in the 21st Century: The Declining Significance of Discrimination". NBER Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w16256. 
  8. ^Clotfelter, Charles T, Ladd, Helen F (September 2015). "Public Universities, Equal Opportunity, and the Legacy of Jim Crow: Evidence from North Carolina". NBER Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w21577. 
  9. ^"Archived copy"(PDF). Archived from the original on February 8, 2011. Retrieved 2011-06-01. 
  10. ^"National slowdown dims New England economic outlook". Boston Globe. May 30, 2008. 
  11. ^"The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure". The National Bureau of Economic Research. 
  12. ^ ab"The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions". The National Bureau of Economic Research. 
  13. ^
  14. ^"Recession 'over,' but the mood is glum". Buffalo News. September 27, 2010. 
  15. ^"Economist who called recession's end sees recovery". Investment News. September 28, 2010. 
  16. ^"CNN Poll: Nearly three-fourths say recession not over". CNN. September 26, 2010. 
  17. ^"Meaning of word 'recession' varies". Delmarva News. September 28, 2010. [permanent dead link]
  18. ^"Editorial: Too early to say recession has run its course in U.S."The Daily Republic. September 28, 2010. [permanent dead link]
  19. ^"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research". National Bureau of Economic Research. September 20, 2010. 


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